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Demand, Supply and Price Forecasts

Economikr has years of experience in demand and supply forecasting of various markets, including energy demand – oil, electricity, and natural gas. Demand, supply and their equilibrium price are assessed in a process that includes detailed market or industry analyses, surveys of relevant government bodies and potential end-users. Forecasting is performed using traditional economic theory, while calibrating to specific market needs, including the presence of monopolies and cartels when required.

Development and updating the Electricity Price Model in Israel

This project, based on the Israeli Electricity Regulation Authority (PUA), included estimating the overall electricity demand and developing an investment plan at the macro-economic level. The model created for this project was used to estimate future electricity prices in Israel, both over the time of day (Offpeak, Shoulder, and Peak), season (Summer, Winter, Shoulder), and on the yearly level. The forecast created was a long-term forecast, until 2030.

Survey of Natural Gas Distribution Market in Israel

Performed under subcontract to Economic Models for Noble Energy, this project entailed estimating the demand from natural gas plants of varying sizes throughout Israel. It also included possible supply sources, constraints, and estimating costs for different sized organizations. 

Estimating Economic Potential of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) in Israel

Supported by Israel Oil Refineries, and performed under subcontract to Economic Models, this project included a survey of world supply and demand sources, and estimating the economic profitability of importing LNG to Israel to produce electricity.

Estimation Model of Natural Gas Demand in Israel

Another significant project performed for Noble Energy, under subcontract to Economic Models, this project estimated the demand for natural gas from various sources - Israel Electric Corporation (including replacing coal electricity supply with natural gas), direct industrial demand, cogeneration for large scale plants such as Israel Chemicals, American Israel Paper Mills (AIPM), and Independent Private Producer (IPP) demand, such as Dorad. The project included production estimation of electricity production using traditional production fuels. The estimates were based on the national electricity demand forecast, market distribution between Noble Energy and Egyptian gas, and estimating sales revenue under various price structures.


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